Only invest in cards with a high probability of working out.

It seems stupidly obvious, but I’m here to tell you you’re probably not doing as well as you think at avoiding high-risk cards.

Maybe it’s hard to find the “home run” investments, so you compromise a little on your card purchases. Or, you want to root for a certain player, or a bunch of other reasons.

For that reason, I teach 11 “landmine” player types to run away from in my live Bootcamp…

But none more so than injury-prone players.

It’s so tantalizing to invest in someone whose pricing is low because of injuries.

Take Embiid, for example. He’s one of the best scorers in NBA history. He’s actually the all-time leader in points per minute played!

With a fully healthy career, he could’ve been a top-10 all-time player. I truly believe that.

So year after year, people buy low, hoping he’ll figure out the injury thing…

The problem is, it rarely happens. Injuries either sap a player's top-end ability, or they’re just never available enough to matter… or both.

Guys who overcome chronic injuries to become All-Timers are so rare. I can think of maybe Steph Curry?

Let other people gamble their money.

It’s easy to look back after someone’s career has been torpedoed by injuries…

There’s Zion Williamson, Joel Embiid, Tua Tagovailoa, Mike Trout, and others. (People forget Tua has been in MVP conversations).

And we know their hobby values tanked once it became clear they weren’t going to get “it” back.

Here’s Zion’s PSA 10 Prizm, which you can get for sub-$20:

But you already know this - you’re not buying Zion right now for flips because there’s no chance he returns to the all-world level he played at when healthy.

And there’s NO way people are buying Joel Embiid, right? Oh no…

That’s pure insanity to me, but LeBron and Jaylen Brown arriving to form a superteam gets people excited. Anyway, don’t go buy Embiid—he hasn’t played more than 40 games in any of the past 3 seasons.

I still doubt serious flippers are buying Embiid, since I’m guessing Philly PCers are propping up the price.

Here are some guys I’m either completely out on, or we’re getting close.

I hate seeing this for 2 young players. At least Daniels had his historical rookie season mostly healthy, but since then, he’s been repeatedly injured.

Jaxson Dart appears to be the kind of player not built for the NFL.

I’m telling you right now, many collectors are going to buy in on the injury lows because of the potential he’s shown.

He’s been knocked out of several games and is now likely out for the year. Nope.

He’s already had FIVE seasons playing less than 110 games. He’s tantalizing because his MVP season was so electric, but he’s had only TWO seasons in his career with WAR above 4.

He’s injury-prone and inconsistent - a combo I’m not investing in.

He’s been relatively durable during the regular season until last year, but he’s been constantly injured at the end of seasons and into the playoffs.

Big guys who rely on scoring in the paint have a long history of tapering off around this age.

Did you know he’s played 10 games or less in half of his seasons?

He was a good offseason investment, but now that games have started, he’s historically been 50/50 with even-finishing seasons… so I’m staying away for now. I’d love for him to prove me wrong so we can see one of the game’s greats put together MVP runs… but I’m skeptical.

I know he’s not a star, but there’s a world where he has a Sam Darnold-like impact on a team with a great defense and wide receivers.

He should be good enough for that… if he wasn’t always injured.

Like Burrow, he’s more injury-prone than you think. In the previous 4 seasons, he only played more than 11 games once… and he’s already been injured this season.

Both are exciting players who’ve missed a ton of games in recent seasons. Morant has mostly been written off, and I’d urge you to resist the “buy low” temptation. I don’t think his redemption arc happens with the Blazers.

Same thing with LaMelo. He’s more highly regarded, but always injured. I don’t have any LaMelo right now, but the smart play is to watch for an immediate jolt to the Wolves and then sell him. I don’t trust him at all long term.

These guys aren’t there… yet.

Two main things to keep in mind here:

Tatum’s pricing return wasn’t quite as dramatic, but it did crescendo with his return… and then promptly fell when they got bounced from the playoffs.

I suspect once Haliburton’s back on the court that his pricing will drop. Even if he plays stellar, he can’t replicate the magical Finals run in October games. Plus, he’s not a traditional “clear out and let him score 28 points” guy, which limits his top-end potential.

To upgrade your flipping, do whatever you can to limit your risk. I think about downside just as much as upside when I’m buying cards.

You can find great cards to flip, so don’t settle or compromise. Look harder, do more research. It’s okay to spend an hour on eBay and not buy any cards. If it’s not a home run, don’t buy it - especially when you’re starting out.