I see so many in the hobby make the same mistakes over and over again…

It doesn’t matter if you're flipping or you want to buy / sell for your PC, it’s always smart to research and be patient to avoid overpaying or selling at the wrong times.

Here are the most common that I see:

Too often, buyers fall for the “I love that guy, I just gotta go buy him!” without doing any other research.

If you’re excited about him right now, chances are, a bunch of others are too—which drives prices up!

Avoid players who:

I know it’s exciting if you’re a Mavericks fan to run out and buy Flagg rookie cards… but it’s almost a guarantee that you can get them at a fraction of the cost if you’re willing to wait.

If you’re newer, pop count refers to PSA’s population count, which shows how many graded versions of each card exist.

For example, there are over 26,000 PSA 10 Prizm Wemby rookies…

So, people who think they’re going to get rich off of those, consider Michael Jordan. He basically just has the ‘86 Fleer and the ‘84 Star cards.

The ‘86 Fleer has 336 PSA 10s listed.

The ‘84 Star has 3 PSA 9s listed.

That’s why those cards sell for hundreds of thousands, something the Wemby could never even sniff if he becomes the GOAT.

So, how does that work in the real world?

Let’s say you’re considering a Josh Allen rookie card, and you’re looking at these two cards:

Not only is Prizm a much more quality brand, but it’s got about 1/5 the pop count! For only $75 more, I’d absolutely grab the Prizm.

In more cases than you’d think, past pricing indicates future movement.

Sure, players can always break through new ceilings, or free-fall past expected lows…but for players with a track record, price history is a great indicator of the future.

Here’s an example of Anthony Edwards Green Prizm PSA 9:

It takes some practice to spot these quickly, but take a look at those red lines I drew.

The hobby, as a whole, has basically decided “this card shouldn’t really go above $100 or below $60.”

This tells us a few things:

This can affect basketball as well, but it’s generally more of an NFL thing:

The schedule is one of the biggest reasons for players and teams to rise and fall.

We get so excited for teams that are 3-1, but it could’ve been against awful teams. Or, a team goes 1-3, but they played 4 awesome teams.

For players, here are a few examples of the type of analysis I’d do:

I don’t start my analysis by looking at the schedule, but I always look at past & upcoming games to help determine if there’s room to grow, as well as a tentative selling window.

This would be #1 if I were only talking to pure flippers. I hate nothing more than investing in a guy who turns into a complete zero.

When I was getting back into collecting, I bought a Drew Lock PSA 10 Prizm rookie for decent money because I thought he would win Denver’s starting job.

But, Teddy Bridgewater got the nod, and within a month, Lock’s card dropped 75% in price.

Now, I don’t just invest in the GOATs—I like to go for guys who already have a track record of being pretty good and have great upside.

But I feel like flippers in the hobby just outsmart themselves looking for the next lottery ticket rather than stacking consistent wins.

For example, the players I’ve most invested in for the NBA season:

The floor is pretty high for all of them.

What other mistakes do you see or have made yourself? Respond and let me know!