The #1 question that people ask me is this:

“How do I find the right cards to invest in?”

And that makes sense, right? That’s the whole game. If you buy the right cards, you win.

So I figured I should have a “here it is!” guide in one place that breaks it down.

Before I dive in, just a quick note:

The first 2 sessions of my live Bootcamp cover finding the right cards & players. It takes me 2.5 hours to go through it all (and I talk fast).

So, you’ll get the cliff notes version here, but I think it’s probably the most useful piece I’ve ever published in my free newsletter.

The hobby runs on absolute superstars. When teams win, they get the credit. People love collecting guys who can be All-Time Greats, while all the rest tend to be forgotten.

Think about someone like Donovan Mitchell

Bunch of All-Star nods, All-NBA selections, and an exciting scorer.

But he’s never really been a top-7 player in the NBA.

He won't have many fans 20 years from now, and that trickles down to his value today. Because most of his story is written, and the hobby knows he’s not an All-Timer, his pricing can’t touch players like LeBron or Jokic or SGA.

So there are 2 types of players that we invest in:

My favorite group to invest in is the young guys who already have stretches of looking like a superstar!

Think about Dylan Harper, Cooper Flagg, Drake Maye, Caleb Williams, Junior Caminero, and others.

The next step is to layer on reasons why that player is a good investment right now.

Most of my card flips are designed to move in 3-6 months. You need cash flow to run a business, so I don’t spend a ton on cards that I plan to hold for years (I spend excess profits on those cards, as I outlined in last week’s premium newsletter).

So the players that I invest in have real, legitimate, and likely reasons to increase in value in the short term.

Here are my 11 frameworks that often lead to players rising in value:

Also, age matters a lot here. If a 32-year-old NBA player has an outlier superstar stretch, it matters a lot less than if a 22-year-old does.

That 32-year-old is too late to have a truly great career, but the young guy might play that way for the next 15 years…with more room to keep getting better.

Remember, the hobby is always searching for the next GOAT.

The first step is projecting ahead several months to see where the player will be.

Ideally, you want to sell at hot times and buy at slow times. (Seems obvious, but very, very few actually follow this)

So, if you bought a card today, where is that player likely to be in 3-6 months?

For example, if you buy an NBA card in July, you can look ahead and realize the NBA season starts in October. There’s always hype leading up to a season, so that’s a good time to sell.

Or, if you want to buy an MLB card in June, buy a player who will be extremely relevant near the end of the season and into the playoffs.

On the other hand, don’t buy NFL cards in December for a guy who won't be in the playoffs. You’ll be stuck holding that card for a good while.

Part of timing is understanding the pricing.

Too often, flippers think like this:

“I like Josh Allen, he’s an absolute stud, and I think his team is going to be awesome and he’ll win MVP.”

So they go to eBay and comp out a card.

What they’re missing is that his cards are at massive, all-time highs right now! Now, could he keep going up? Absolutely, if he keeps playing like this.

But it definitely lowers your margin for error if the market decides they’re reaching a max on Josh Allen cards. You need him to rise 30% - 40% to make a decent profit. I don't think that’s likely unless he has a historic season and/or a great playoff run.

Certainly possible, but with pricing already skyrocketing, who’s to say where the ceiling is?

So, what do we do?

My favorite flips are ones where a player is down from his 2-year pricing high. The hobby has shown an appetite to pay that pricing in the past, so it’s more likely to happen again than relying on new all-time highs.

For example, here’s a Drake Maye PSA 10 Prizm price chart, showing the last 2 years:

We saw plenty of sales around the $330 mark leading up to the Super Bowl. Now, he’s been at $150 or lower recently.

I don’t think he’ll hit $330 again, but if you buy this card at $150 and it goes to $225, that’s a pretty decent flip. You don’t even need him to get close to previous highs.

It’s trickier with young guys (especially rookies) because they don’t have an established price track record. I have a few rules I generally follow here:

Most players have thousands of unique cards…and 99% of them aren’t worth buying.

Here’s how I pick what to buy:

I’ve thrown a lot at you today, and it still feels like there’s so much more.

Here’s a quick checklist to help keep things simple:

If this was useful, just know it's maybe 20% of what I actually cover in the first two sessions of the Casual Flipper Bootcamp. Live, in real time, with real examples pulled from what's happening in the hobby, not just a cliff notes version like this.

The next round isn't open yet, but the waitlist is. Get on it here, and you'll be the first to know when the cart opens.

Got a card you're deciding on right now? Hit reply, I read every one.

Note: I get all my pricing from CardLadder (affiliate link) and have used it every day for 3+ years. You can get an additional 10% off if you use code HCL at checkout.