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It’s the time of the year for the boys to turn on the hose and turn a dirt section of our backyard into a swamp…and then track that mud into the house. It’s to the point where I find door handles inside the house crusted with mud. Having 3 brothers myself, I’d like to formally apologize to my mother.
- Cameron
Topps Taking Over NFL Licensing
This week, we’re getting massive news for the card world. We’ve known it was going to happen for a few years now… but it’s here.
NFL cards will now be licensed by Topps rather than Panini. (Well, really, it’s Fanatics that’s getting the licensing, and they purchased Topps in 2022.
Licensing is Boring. What Does It Even Mean?
Basically, it means that the NFL cards that Topps produces will now show team names and logos!
If you look at unlicensed stuff (like Prizm Baseball, for example), you’ll see that they aren’t allowed to include team logos or team names. Here’s an example with Aaron Judge:
You’ll see that it just says “New York” and not Yankees. The famous NY logo isn’t anywhere to be seen.
Compare that to this card, with the NY logo all over the place, and “Yankees” along the left side:
Not only does the card feel more complete, but the hobby as a whole prioritizes these cards much more. They sell for more money, and they’re also more liquid (which is why I never grade or flip unlicensed cards).
What Does This Mean Moving Forward?
Here’s why I’m excited for Topps/Fanatics to take over licensing:
For the first time since I’ve returned to collecting, the 3 major sports are all under the same licensing agreement!
This means:
The “flagship” brand releases for each sport are the same. It feels cleaner to me that Topps Chrome is a big deal for basketball, baseball, and football.
There are fewer brands to keep track of. Since I focus on licensed products, I don’t need to stay up-to-date on new Prizm, Optic, Mosaic, etc.
We can now hunt the same inserts & parallels across all three sports. If you like Topps Chrome Helix inserts for baseball, you can also find them in NBA and NFL products, too.
It’s now easier to compare pricing across sports. I can see how a Topps Chrome case hit insert compares between Patrick Mahomes and Shohei Ohtani.
AND… we should now get fully licensed autos in flagship products from everyone! In the past few years, some players signed exclusive rights with Fanatics, but the licensing still belonged to Panini. So, we had players like Bo Nix, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Jaxson Dart, Cam Ward, and more from the past few years not allowed to sign cards for licensed Panini products. Now, they can sign for licensed Fanatics products.
What Happens Short-Term?
Over the next several months, we can definitely expect to see Topps products released! It’s a bit of a dead time for NFL right now as we wait for the draft, but we should expect a full slate of 2026 season licensed products.
For investors/flippers, I’d expect to see a bump in both the final year of Panini products and also the first year in Topps products. Collectors like the “first” or “last” of anything.
In addition, there should be a tremendous opportunity for holding boxes of 2026 NFL products.
Think about it:
Not only do we get 2026 rookie autos, but we’ll also get the FIRST licensed autos for some of the biggest rookies over the past few years. So, while you can get Fernando Mendoza’s auto, you’ll also get the first licensed autos for players like Dart, Ward, Nix, Maye, Williams, Daniels, and many more.
All of those cards are going to be popular.
It’s kind of like Fleer’s ‘86 set that was the first nationally distributed, officially licensed set in 5 years, so it featured a stacked checklist of rookies from the past several years. Same thing here, but with autos.
These won’t be rookie autos (except the ‘26 draft class, of course), but it's still a big deal that it's their first auto.
What thoughts do you have about this?
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Buy/Sell Targets
This doesn’t constitute investment advice, more just a window into my overall strategy as well as for entertainment purposes. All pricing and screenshots are taken from Card Ladder—the only pricing & inventory tool I use.
✔️ Malik Nabers 🏈 - When he’s right, he’s a target machine. His hype will grow when he retakes the field after his injury-riddled 2025. With Harbaugh, Dart, and Skattebo in place, I think it’s a rising tides situation.
✔️ SGA / Jokic 🏀- I mentioned this last week, but both of these players seem to be on the Shohei Ohtani pricing track of “we just keep going up forever.” Jokic could retire at any time (to race horses), which makes him more risky, but SGA probably has another decade. They’re expensive, but if you want to get in, I think it’s hard to lose at this point.
✔️ Tyler Shough 🏀 - To lead the Saints to a 5-4 record in his games is phenomenal. He seems to be a winner. Obviously, the age isn’t…ideal (he’s 26), but age matters less than reps in the NFL. But, to turn a profit, you just need hype to kick in as the season gets close, and I think that’ll happen for Shough.
❌ Luka Doncic - If there’s anyone who could shove this back in my face, it’s Luka. And, I think it’s totally dependent on the price you can get here. Some of his cards have jumped 25% with his recent play, while others haven’t budged. If I could get 25% extra right now, I’d jump on it. The Lakers are on fire, but history tells us that the body of work from the whole season is (usually) more important than playing well for a few weeks at the end. Plus, I don’t like their chances against most of their likely 1st round matchups (Nuggets & Wolves probably beat them, they’d probably beat the Rockets).
Shohei Ohtani is going for his 4th MVP in a row. Who is the only player to win 4 straight?
New Releases
Nothing on my radar this week! Leaf Pop Century and WNBA Prizm are fun, but not really what I collect. Panini Silhouette football is interesting, but there’s enough other high-end stuff that I’ve honestly never paid attention to this one.
*Release dates can (and often do) change as products get delayed 🙄. It’s possible some notable sets are being released this week that I covered in previous editions.
**Pricing taken from active eBay listings. Items ordered from links will result in a small affiliate commission at no cost to you.
Quick Hits
News From Around the Hobby
+ That’s a (Bowman) First - “For the first time, officially licensed NCAA Men’s and Women’s basketball cards are appearing alongside NBA cards in the same packs. NCAA players receive the “1st Bowman” treatment.” As always, I’m fascinated by these first releases of Topps basketball products. $340 for a hobby box seems like a good deal, but that’s also driven partly because Bowman 1st hasn’t been a thing in basketball. College players are going to get that designation now, but is the hobby going to care? We’ve got about a month before the release date, and I’m curious what early eBay sales on these show.
+ Rookie Playoff Risers - This NBA season, we’re going to get something we rarely see: multiple high-level rookie contributors in the playoffs. Edgecombe, Harper, and Knueppel are all poised to make an impact, but who’s worth investing in? (For me, it’s Harper)
+ Bullish on Vintage - “Gordy Bonker dips into his Wall Street background to talk about the economy and where it meets the sports card hobby.” I’m not as invested in vintage as I want to be, but all signs point to it being a sector poised for massive growth.
Every person in the hobby will usually go through a few phases. They’ll think that breaks and opening packs are SUPER fun…but the ROI isn’t there. They’ll buy sealed wax (unopened boxes/packs) to hold…but that’s torture for most people to see the potential for a big hit sitting on their counter. Then, they figure why not spend that money on singles? But then you need to figure out if raw or graded cards are the way to go… [Keep Reading]
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The content in this newsletter is for entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be actual financial or investment advice.
