As a hybrid collector/investor, one thing that’s helped me tremendously is to create a set of rules for flipping cards.

Like which types of cards do I buy, but perhaps more importantly…

Which types of cards I just won’t buy.

When you’re considering a card to buy, it’s fun to look at the upside, but it’s just as important to look at the downside.

To me, if a card has a chance of falling to near-zero, then that’s a gamble, not an investment. Or, if upside is capped…same thing. Don’t fall for the trap of someone who’s already as high as they will probably go.

Here’s my list:

How often does a player have a consistent injury history, but then shakes it off and is completely healthy for long stretches?

It’s rare. Much more often, that player continues to disappoint. And nothing really hurts hobby value more than someone who never plays. Just look at Zion.

If you already have the player in hand, I hope for a healthy stretch and sell.

Examples: Trout, Embiid, Jimmy G (had a lot of hype at one point!), and plenty of others.

There’s only so much hobby love to go around, and the guys who usually dominate the hobby are:

I’m not saying a middling player can’t have a spike, but it’s much more difficult to predict.

Examples: Literally 95% of the leagues.

These guys are historically good in the regular season and have had some playoff success. However, they’re usually expensive, and the only thing left to really move the needle would be to win a championship.

It’s such a dice roll when trying to figure out who’s going to win a championship that it often feels more like guessing. Sure, there may be instances where you can squeak out some flipping gains, but anything significant requires a championship.

The downside is if these players don’t win a championship soon, the narrative shifts to “best players to never win a championship,”… and you definitely don’t want to be there.

Examples: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Luka Doncic

While this matters less in baseball, players with great stats but few wins are often questioned in basketball and football.

For example, Bradley Beal put up 30 points a game in Washington…and nobody cared. Sure, it helped his pricing a bit, but he was never going to be anyone truly relevant.

Often, these types of players never get in the right situation to win, and if they do, they often have to return to a high-level role player to win big.

Examples: Trae Young, LaMelo Ball (good example, as his team is playing much better, but he’s also playing fewer minutes and shooting way less than previous years.)

This might be the most costly mistake. When you pay for hype, usually that player doesn’t meet it and pricing drops. Or, it takes a few years to prove the hype before pricing can go to a new level.

Even if the guy is a great player, the pricing is much more likely to drop big than to continue moving up. Progress is often not linear, so a player can have a down month or two, and pricing will drop like a rock.

Think about Wemby and his PSA 10 Prizm rookies. He had the normal “new release bump” but then his cards continued to drop for another year. Now, they’re coming back up as he lives up to the hype as a top-5 player on a championship contender:

Examples: Drake Maye (pre-Super Bowl), Cooper Flagg

These are players who showed promise but then repeatedly disappointed. I’ve seen people in the hobby choose a player to back, hoping that a new situation or a new season will result in a different result.

But, as a whole, it takes a lot for the hobby to be back in on someone who’s been disappointing. It took two years of winning a ton of games (and a Lombardi Trophy) for Sam Darnold to jump in pricing.

But on the whole, investing in those types of players usually results in disappointment as they rarely live up to early excitement.

Examples: Kyler Murray, CJ Stroud, Jo Adell, Cody Bellinger, Ja Morant

This doesn’t constitute investment advice, more just a window into my overall strategy as well as for entertainment purposes. All pricing and screenshots are taken from Card Ladder—the only pricing & inventory tool I use.

✔️ Dylan Harper 🏀 - I’ve purchased two cards of his in the past week for investment purchases. The consensus before the draft was that he’s a superstar in the waiting, and in many other years would’ve been the #1 pick. He’ll play a big role in the playoffs on a contending team, which is rare for a rookie. Even if he doesn’t play well this time around, the long-term upside is worth investing in.

✔️ Justin Jefferson - With an awful QB situation, he still had 84 catches and over 1,000 yards. With a half-decent QB, he could be right back to 1,500 yards and 10 TDs. That’s worth an investment in the offseason. See his PSA 10 Prizm chart below. I love investing in cards with pretty clear price channels like this. You can often buy at $60, but you can also often sell at $100.

✔️ Cam Ward 🏈 - As an avid listener of sports podcasts, people much smarter than me see a real QB in Cam Ward. He improved throughout the season and did the best he could in a pretty bad situation. The year 2 jump is real, plus I’m betting the team won’t be quite as bad.

❌ Konnor Griffin ⚾ - Don’t sell yet, but watch the news like a hawk if you’re holding him. In fact, I’d already have the card listed a bit above current comps and see if someone bites when Griffin gets called up. He seems like the real deal, but selling when hype is super high is always a good idea, and there’s usually a good buying window later if you want to be with him long term.

❌ Jaylen Brown 🏀 - The guy has played awesome, but I just don’t buy the “win the East if Tatum comes back.” A superstar coming back off an Achilles isn’t likely to help at first, and will likely muddle the pecking order at the top. I think the C’s win the first round, but they could easily fall to the Pistons, Cavs, or Knicks. Sell while he’s high.

News From Around the Hobby

+ 5-Figure Card Sales Rise - “So far, as of March 3, there have been 7,025 sales of $10,000 or more — meaning we are on pace to obliterate the all time record with more than 41,000 by year’s end if this trajectory holds.” Lots of people are choosing sports cards as long-term investments.

+ Sophomore Non-Slump - Check out this article: “Three 2024 NBA Draft Breakout Stars: Cards to Buy Now.” I especially like Stephon Castle, who’s been perhaps the second-best player on the Spurs this season and about to go a few rounds into the playoffs (if not further).

+ “Florida Man” is Undefeated - “A South Florida man has been charged with touring the state to steal sports cards dozens of times from Target and Walmart stores and then flipping the free boxes for a five-figure profit.”

Whether you’re just trying to get a feel for what your old collection is worth or you’re looking to jump back in, you’ll need to learn how to accurately pull comps for your cards!

The most reliable place (and the place where most 3rd party apps get their data) is…[Keep Reading]

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The content in this newsletter is for entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be actual financial or investment advice.