Most people don’t lose money buying bad cards; they lose money buying at the wrong time.

After all, any semi-relevant card has a price point that makes it a great buy, for your PC or if you’re a flipper.

So, when are the best times to buy cards at prices that make sense?

Unless you’re much smarter than me (totally possible, likely even), you’ve probably fallen for buying a card at the peak of its hype.

When I first got back into card collecting in early 2021, one of the first cards I bought was a LaMelo Ball Prizm Draft Picks for $25.

His hype was crazy and the product had only been out 1 or 2 months. Then, I watched the card drop to $20…then $15… then $10….

Now, it sells for under a buck.

But now that I’m smarter, I know to wait 3+ months to buy singles after a release.

Here’s a great example of buying the post-hype crash for Wembanyama:

His crash took a bit longer because he had more hype than almost anyone, ever. But, there was a good, long stretch where you could have bought this Prizm PSA 10 for under $100. The card is nearing $300 and will likely continue to rise during the playoffs.

In other words, be patient after a card release, no matter how much you like the player.

Example: Cooper Flag. Topps Chrome PSA 10s were over $600 for about 6 weeks. Now they’re under $400, and might drop more as he’s playoff irrelevant.

Many successful sports card flippers will often turn over their entire inventory based on season cycles.

For example, basketball is high right now, so they’ll offload everything and put that money into football.

Plus, there are often slow times during the long season where players drop simply because it’s hard for collectors/fans to show interest for every week of the season.

Season Cycles

With the shorter (and more popular) football season, there’s less of a “dog days” there in the middle, but there are still opportunities.

Example: I’m currently focused on loading up on football cards, as basketball prices are climbing. Right now, I love Burrow, Herbert, and Brock Bowers (if I had to pick a non-QB).

Whenever I look to buy someone, I have to be able to explain why they dropped in value. If the answer is “because the market is weird” or “I don’t know,” then I stay away.

However, one of the most reliable reasons for a player to drop in value is that they’re injured or there’s a narrative against them. Narrative is harder to overcome, making injury comebacks the easier one to invest in.

Joe Burrow’s turf toe last year erased the price gains seen from the early-season excitement. He never really recaptured the pricing highs as he returned too late in the season.

There’s optimism for next season, as the ceiling is the Super Bowl for Burrow. He’s still a pretty good buy right now if you can find a card at $80 and flip for $130 around the start of the season.

Example: Burrow’s a pretty good one, but make sure that you’re cautious. The market starts getting wise to these drops, and more collectors are buying the dips. Tyrese Haliburton, for example, is almost back to pre-injury levels even though we won’t see him until next season. Same with Tatum, as his prices started rising as far back as last November.

+ 2025 Topps Definitive Baseball - April 29 | $6,000 - With 6 autos and 2 relics per box, you’re looking at one of the premier releases of the baseball calendar. The loaded rookie class makes for some BIG hits… but of course, it’s still a box for breaking unless you’re a big spender.

+ 2025-26 Topps Cosmic Chrome Basketball - April 29 | $850 - Man, I just keep getting excited for all these new licensed basketball releases! With Cosmic Chrome fast becoming a massively popular set in baseball, I’m guessing the same happens with basketball. It underwhelmed when unlicensed, but that’ll likely change this time around. Autos in this set are rare (about 2 per case), but the real value comes from the massively popular parallels and SSP inserts. Some of those Planetary Pursuit cards of Cooper Flagg will go for stupid money.

*Release dates can (and often do) change as products get delayed 🙄. It’s possible some notable sets are being released this week that I covered in previous editions.

**Pricing taken from active eBay listings. Items ordered from links will result in a small affiliate commission at no cost to you.

News From Around the Hobby

+ Topps Chrome NFL Buyback - With the feeding frenzy that is Topps Chrome NFL fully upon us, here are the details of the MVP buyback program involving Matthew Stafford.

+ Topp(s) Dart Cards in Chrome - “Ten years after Topps last printed licensed football cards, Jaxson Dart is the product darling of 2025 Topps Chrome.” Those Kaiju cards are especially insane - sales are topping $5k.

+ In the Wind(y) City - “Surveillance video shows at least two thieves, one grabbing merchandise from behind the counter….About $100,000 worth of inventory was taken.” Apparently the guy had been robbed just a few years back, too.

One of the best ways to make money in the sports cards industry is to send in your cards to get graded!

Things aren’t quite like they used to be when the boom hit in early 2021…back then, you could submit almost anything and sell it for a crazy premium…[Keep Reading]

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The content in this newsletter is for entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be actual financial or investment advice.