Because QBs run the market, let’s preview the season by ranking the top 10 QBs, as well as a Buy/Sell recommendation for each.

These aren’t legacy picks. These are the ones I would take to help me win games this season.

Let’s go!

I think it’s undeniable at this point that he’s the best, most consistent game-to-game QB in the NFL. He’s the guy doing the most heavy lifting for a top contender.

He rarely has “bad” games, even in the playoffs. He did have 4 giveaways against the Broncos in their playoff loss, but that’s more of an outlier (and they still put up 30 points).

Total playoff stats:

15 games, 3,915 yards, 29 TDs, 6 INTs, 767 yards rushing, 9 TDs, 4 fumbles lost.

I mean, those are MVP numbers against the best teams in the league.

Not an indictment of his play, but rather how much his price has risen. Even if I don’t blame him, his teams have never made a Super Bowl. The hobby will ding him for that at some point.

The guy had one of the best seasons by a QB ever last year. He can’t run, but it doesn’t matter. He's always in command, always accurate, and can make all the throws. I heard him described recently as “Drew Brees, but makes 3-4 throws a game that Brees never could.” That’s a pretty darn good player.

Last year: 4,707 yards 46 TDs, 8 INT

He’s been so good and consistent that I debated #1 for him, but he’s old and has back issues. Plus Josh Allen is superhuman.

There’s a lot of hype around the Rams, and I don’t like that some of his cards have risen by 40% over the offseason. Even a heavy favorite is still unlikely to actually win the Super Bowl, and his back issues could pop up at any time.

On the other hand, if he has an Elway-esque ending to his career, he can certainly reach new heights.

There have been times when he’s literally been the best passer and runner in the league. In 2024, he had 41 TDs and just 4 INTs. Oh, and he led the league with 6.6 yards per rush and had 915 total yards.

Before his injury last season, it was business as usual with 10 TDs and 1 INT in 4 games, and he had 3 of his 5 best rushing yard totals. People across all of sports media are saying things like “He’s slowing down” or “taking a step back.”

I’m hopeful that he’s back to 100% and will be his normal self. Even a version that doesn’t rush quite as much is still a really, really good player.

He has multiple cards (like his rookie Donruss PSA 10) that have dropped by almost half from highs hit about a year ago. If you think that he could return to the Lamar of just 2 years ago (or something close), you’re golden.

I know, I know. I want Mahomes to be elite as much as anyone, and maybe this is partly a knock on his team and stale coaching.

But…

His last real kick-butt season was 2022. Since then, he hasn’t thrown for 30 TDs in a season and has missed 4k yards twice. And last year, they were 6-8 before he got injured. I just don’t see Josh Allen going 6-8 ever.

Plus, returning from an ACL injury might make him skittish enough to somewhat neutralize his elite scrambling.

His Optic & Donruss PSA 10s are up 60% since February.

His Silver Prizm PSA 9s are up almost double.

This baffles me. I know he’s an all-time great and potentially a “401(k)” type card, but that type of quick rise doesn’t seem based on reality to me. His team wasn’t good last year, the offense has grown stagnant, and he’s coming back from a big injury.

It’s like the entire hobby has already decided that he’s returned to Super Bowl contention in the preseason. I don’t see it.

I know, I usually wait longer than 1 great season to rank a player this high, but that season was so good. Stafford had an all-time season, yet most advanced metrics had Maye as the better QB.

Now with AJ Brown and more talent on the team as a whole, he could rip through the league. Another season like last year, and he could be pushing for the top spot.

Perhaps it’s the “only done it for 1 year” issue, but his prices don’t reflect how good he is. His PSA 10 Prizms dropped after the Super Bowl loss (understandable), but they’ve kept falling during the offseason and even now with the season about to start.

Seems like he was injured during the playoffs, and he’ll be back to his gunslinging ways here soon.

Someone like Drake Maye is exactly the type of player I teach students to target in the Casual Flipper Bootcamp. I’m all in.

I think he’s always had crazy talent, but has been let down by poor WRs, an injured O-line, or teams that don’t let him rip it enough.

I am so high on him this year with Mike McDaniel as the OC. I can’t believe the offenses he built with Tua.

He’s been rising in the offseason as a lot of people see the optimistic version of the Chargers (like me).

I just don’t think his PSA 10 Prizms should be half of what Burrow’s are selling for.

7 is too low for Burrow based on talent alone. He’s great, and plays with perhaps the best WR tandem in the league. If healthy, he’ll put up staggering numbers.

This is a hedge on his health: he’s had significant injuries in 3 of his 6 seasons, including 2 of his last 3. If he has another injury, I think he gets the dreaded “injury-prone” label, and the hobby starts to turn.

His prices have risen for almost a year straight, and I don’t like betting on him staying healthy.

It went under the radar that he threw for 4,552 yards, 30 TDs, and 10 INTs last year because the defense was a joke.

He’s had some injury issues, but not as consistently as Burrow. When healthy and plays the whole season, he’s been good for 4,500+ yards and 30+ TDs. He’ll put up MVP-type numbers if Lamb and Pickens play the whole season.

This is bonkers:

The market has been over the moon for Dak, but I don’t really get it. I doubt they’re good enough to be Super Bowl contenders, and they might not rack up enough wins for him to be in real MVP contention.

With pricing increasing 5x in the past 2 years, that’s a huge stayaway for me.

He’s always one of the more efficient QBs in the league, but it seems the hobby is just waiting for a true breakout season. I mean, look at this pricing:

That’s the definition of “we’re just waiting to see what he does.” Can they win 10+ games and Love throws for 35 TDs? He’s got the potential for sure.

At this point, I’m in “why not?” territory. You can grab his PSA 10 Prizm rookie for about $45, and he starts the season with the Vikings, Jets, Falcons, Buccaneers, Bears, and Cowboys. Those are all winnable games. Just be careful, as their schedule gets harder later in the season, so he could start to fade.

Based purely on stats, he would be a top-3 QB. But there’s a perception that he’s played in friendly offenses with great skill position player… and that hurts him.

But just look at these past 4 seasons:

In 30 years, people will read these stats and think he’s a top-10 all-time QB.

This is tough for me. In the 2024 season, they went 15-2, and his PSA 10 Silver Prizm went to $300. It has since fallen to sub-$150, and now sits around $200.

So, if you think the Lions could hit 15 wins again (they have a very easy schedule), he could certainly return to that $300 number again.

We’ve just seen that he doesn’t get MVP buzz (one top-5 finish in his career), so he’d have to do something AMAZING to get a big hobby push. He’s been on the rise steadily for a bit, so I wouldn’t buy in now. If I already had his cards, I’d hold to see if the Lions have a big season.

Disagree with any of these? Hit reply and tell me which one. I read every email.